Essay on Climate Change and Agriculture | India | Geography

Here is a compilation of essays on the ‘Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture’ for class 9, 10, 11 and 12. Find paragraphs, long and short essays especially written for school and college students.

Essay Contents:

1. Essay on the Introduction to Agriculture and Climate Change
2. Essay on IAASTD on Climate Change vis-a-vis Agriculture
3. Essay on IAASTD on Mutual Dependency of Climate Change and Agriculture
4. Essay on Climate Change Adaptation Options
5. Essay on Climate Change Mitigation Options (as Suggested by IAASTD)
6. Essay on Climate Change Regimes
7. Essay on GHG Mitigation and Energy Saving in Organic Farming
8. Essay on Indian Climate Scenario
9. Essay on the Urgent Need for Rescheduling the Farming Practices of Small­holder Indian Farmers
10. Essay on Biodiversity and Climate Change
11. Essay on the Options for Small and Marginal Farmers
12. Essay on the Remarks on Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

Essay # 1. Introduction to Agriculture and Climate Change:

Natural ‘wild’ plants and animals as well as lower organisms and microbes coevolved with the changing climatic scenario over millions and millions of years. Geographically climate itself varied widely, as such, there have been large variations, in plants, animals and microbes in macro and innumerable microclimatic niches as reflected in their diverse kinds, orders, families, genera, species and types.

The coevolution of animals that are basically dependent on plants as well as intra-plant and intra-animal co-evolutions (also similar co-evolutions within lower organisms and microbes), would continuously add to the expanding realm of biodiversity.

The present day cultivated plants, specifically the short-lived annual crops on the other hand, have been developed through human efforts of conscious and purposeful selection of plant types successfully adapting to the microclimate prevailing in a zone or locality and that has been done rather recently dating back to mid-agrarian civilization of several thousand years.

Conscious breeding of plants and animals followed by selection for climatic adaptation (rather edapho-climatic adaptation) as well as productivity and quality related characters has been a much more recent event.

The coevolution of higher and lower organisms particularly with microbes, that are integral parts of the natural cycles, is intimately associated with the functioning of all sustainable agricultural systems. The manifold interactions between the different constituents of the biosphere involving natural and anthropologically altered complex ecosystems would indeed be a highly complicated issue defying clear understanding because of complex interactions.

Agro-ecologists the world over are aware of the fact that of all the ecosystems, biodiversity loss is the highest in the agro-ecosystem and the same would be further exacerbated by climate change. They therefore advocate adoption of agricultural systems that would as far as practicable be in harmony with nature.

The launching of the monumental report of the United Nations and World Bank sponsored International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) in April, 2008 sounding a stark warning note, “Business as usual is not an option”, would imply the urgent need to shift from the present conventional (industrial) agriculture and allied activities to natural resource management and societal welfare based sustainable agricultural systems that would particularly benefit the underprivileged small-holder farmers in the developing countries.

It is worthwhile to note that major observations of IAASTD on agriculture and climate change would broadly reflect the views of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Incidentally, the chairman of IAASTD, Professor Robert Watson has been the former chairman of the IPCC (and a co-sharer of the Nobel Prize for Peace won by the IPCC team in 2007). The broad observations presented in the synthesis report of IAASTD are briefly outlined hereunder.

Essay # 2. IAASTD on Climate Change vis-a-vis Agriculture:

i. Complexity of the Climate Systems:

Climate change is a highly complex subject and it is difficult to elucidate and fully understand the different issues involved. Nevertheless, the IPCC has provided convincing evidences, implicating the greenhouse gases in global warming and climate change and all countries responsible for significant emissions must agree to urgently implement emission reduction proposals as per ratified international protocols.

Even if emission reduction proposals are readily implemented the greenhouse gases already released would continue to increase global warming for many years because of the time lag between emission and its actual manifestation on global warming depending on the physical and chemical properties of the individual greenhouse gases, their atmospheric residence times and reactions with other constituents of the atmosphere and sunlight.

ii. Observed Climate Change and Impacts:

In general, longer and more intense droughts have been observed since 1970s. Extreme events such as floods, droughts and tropical cyclones are presently more intense than before. Usually, such extreme events are associated with significant adverse consequences on food and forestry production and very often associated with food insecurity. During the summer of 2003, the European heat wave that was accompanied by drought, caused a 20 per cent reduction of maize yields.

Recurrence of such events is quite likely, along with the incidence and severity of forest fires in the coming years exacerbated by unmitigated climate change. Throughout North America and Europe (NAE) there has been significant increase in serious forest fires attributable to dense biomass and human access. As was anticipated, climate change has considerably aggravated the adverse effects of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

iii. Future Climate Change and Projected Impacts:

1. With a temperature increase of 1-2°C, crop productivity in the countries in low latitudes would decrease but with that much temperature increase, countries in the mid and high latitudes with more carbon dioxide in the air, coupled with longer growing seasons (the thermal growing season has already lengthened by about 10 days in many temperate zones) may show some increase in productivity but even in those countries production would go down with still higher temperature rise.

From an ecosystem perspective the rate of change is more important and by 2030 a rate of temperature rise by 0.2°C per decade is projected. Experts are of the opinion that rates of rise in excess of that could be dangerous.

2. The current scenario in respect of changes in precipitation is as yet not consistent enough to make confident future projections although water scarcity for many crops and consequent adverse effects on productivity is likely. A rise in temperature would most likely increase the rate of evaporation as well as transpiration from plants. As such, more precipitation in the form of rainfall or snowfall would be expected but it is the pattern of distribution and extent of precipitation in different regions that would be very important from the agricultural viewpoint.

Also the relative contribution of rainfall and snowfall to overall precipitation needs to be elucidated and projections for the same would be necessary. By the year 2050, internal renewable water may increase in several developed countries but the same would possibly decrease in all developing countries.

3. Overall increase in summer monsoon in Asia is projected in most climate models. But the likelihood of prolonged droughts that would be particularly damaging for rice has been projected during the same period. The semiarid regions of Africa would possibly get less rainfall.

Further seasonal and annual differences in rainfall would increase, bringing uncertainty in crop production. Climate change induced rise in temperature when coupled with drought would adversely impact the “breadbasket” regions of China, India and USA. A rise of 2°C temperature may decrease the production of rice by 5-12 per cent in the rainfed paddy cultivation regions of China.

4. Cattle and other livestock are very sensitive to temperature rise and suffer a lot because of drought and lack of drinking water. Climate change induced changes in marine ecosystems as well as inland water bodies would cause greater hardship to fishermen who depend on adequate fish catch from these sources. Sea level rise, changes in water current are affecting the movement of fish and other sea animals.

Enhanced dissolution of carbon dioxide that is being increasingly added to the atmospheric pool would greatly affect the survival of shellfish and other animals with calcareous shells due to greater acidification of seawater. The entry of seawater to coastal areas because of sea level rise as well as by tidal floods (also increased incidence of cyclones) would threaten the livelihood of farmers inhabiting the coastal areas.

5. Climate change, besides direct effect on agricultural production would indirectly reduce productivity by adversely affecting the health of farmers of developing countries where farming is so very dependent on human labour and draft animals. Working in the field at a high temperature for long hours would be really tough for women farmers and labours in particular.

Already annually 2-5 million farmers in the world become ill from use of toxic pesticides of which 0.22 million ultimately the (besides 170,000 occupational deaths in agriculture every year). Climate change would further add to the misery with higher incidence of human diseases as projected by IAASTD and as a result crop productivity is bound to go down. The failing health of form animals would further add to the misery of small-holder farmers.

6. The greater incidence of crop pests and diseases in a warmer climate would reduce crop production causing economic distress of the farmers. The possibility of greater soil erosion because of prolonged drought followed by heavy rainfall and flood, and consequent washing away of the topsoil and nutrients and ultimately leading to desertification is quite strong.

Tropical soils with low organic matter would have the greatest impact of erosion on productivity. There would be greater desertification because of low average annual rainfall and increased evapotranspiration, and poor aggregate stability of the soil. The circumstances would force many farmers to move to urban areas for livelihood. Rural areas devoid of able-bodied male members would have to depend more on women workers and elderly people for farming and allied activities creating difficult sociological problems besides production loss.

The loss of health of women farmers in particular could be disastrous as they are not only producers but also caretakers of the families bearing the burden of nursing children, cooking and many other activities including farming. The conflict for natural resources would increase and according to IAASTD by the end of 2010, 50 million people (mostly of the developing countries) would become climate refugees and by the end of 2050 that number may go up to 200 million.

Essay # 3. IAASTD on Mutual Dependency of Climate Change and Agriculture:

i. Dependency of Agriculture on Climate:

In the history of human civilization, climate extremes and climatic aberrations have wreaked havoc in agriculture and livelihood. All over the world people, rural people in particular, suffered immensely from such events. Through all such tragedies, people learnt how to adapt to such situation especially those who could not move to alternative places or livelihoods. An example of such a phenomenon is El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is a recurring climatic event that occurs at intervals of 2-5 years.

El Nino originates in the southern Pacific ocean off South America and involves a huge warm water current that flows along the west coast of Latin America bringing with it huge tidal waves and very high rainfall greatly damaging marine ecosystems along the coast and devastating the livelihood of fishing communities throughout the western coast of the continent.

Climatologists are of the opinion that El Nino has been responsible for droughts in south India a few years back, as also the prolonged drought in Australia that has drastically reduced Australian wheat production. It is further argued that global climate change has been exacerbating the damaging effects of El Nino, and agricultural systems in many countries are badly hit.

ii. Dependency of Climate on Agriculture:

The effect of climate on agriculture is an issue that has received much attention over the years; IAASTD has put forward the other side of the story, overall agriculture and allied land use activities including deforestation are responsible for nearly 31 per cent of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission.

The major sources of GHG emission in agriculture are as follows:

1. Land conversion and ploughing would release a large amount of carbon dioxide stored in vegetation and soil. Half of the surface land of the world has been converted to crop cultivation and grazing resulting in a loss of half of the forests through deforestation and degradation releasing stored carbon to the atmospheric pool as CO₂.

2. Fossil fuels used to power a range of farm machineries release large amount of CO₂ (also nitrogen oxides, particulate matters, etc. as pollutants), use of fossil fuels in production of fertilizers and pesticides also serves as a significant source of CO₂.

3. Transport of agricultural produce over long distances from farmers to consumers (attributed to regional monoculture and specialty crops in specific belts) is currently making a significant contribution to the carbon dioxide pool.

4. Emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O) take place due to application of fertilizers and manures as well as during decomposition of agricultural wastes.

5. Increasing level of industrial scale animal husbandry to meet the growing demand for livestock products (specifically ruminant-based meat and milk products) as well as wetland paddy cultivation are significant sources of methane gas emissions from agriculture.

Crop and animal husbandry together would account for 13.5 per cent of global emissions mostly through methane (47 per cent of total anthropogenic emission of methane) and nitrous oxide (58 per cent of total anthropogenic N₂O emissions). Against 13.5 per cent estimate of IPCC for cropping and livestock there are reports from other sources, which suggest emissions from livestock alone to be as high as 18 per cent of total emissions (including entire commodity chain for livestock).

Land use, land use changes and forestry contribute 17.4 per cent mostly as carbon dioxide, thus agriculture (cropping and livestock together with land use, land use change and forestry) would contribute nearly 31 per cent (13.5 + 17.4 = 30.9 per cent) of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. As diets change and demand for animal products rise (ruminant meat in particular), GHG emission may increase by another 7 – 20 per cent in the near future.

iii. Climate Change Impacts on Various Subsectors of Agriculture and Allied Practices in Different Regions:

1. Although the highest emissions of greenhouse gases are associated with the most intensive farming systems and the least for subsistence type rainfed agriculture as in sub-Saharan Africa yet the latter is amongst the most vulnerable regions to the impact of climate change due to multiple stresses.

2. Changes in land use have adversely affected the net ability of ecosystems to sequester carbon from the atmosphere. The replacement of carbon-rich grasslands and forests by crops in the temperate zone would result in much lower carbon sequestration. Although in the northern hemisphere there is a slow increase in forests, the overall advantage is being lost due to increased deforestation in the tropics and subtropics.

Forest replacement by perennial oil palm plantations, as in Southeast Asia, may be advantageous for carbon sequestration but cannot compensate for the loss of biodiversity and its potential advantages. Some vulnerable natural pools of carbon such as peat lands are likely to become sources of CO₂ emission due to climate change.

3. Livestock holders would suffer in various ways as animals are very sensitive to heat stress and drought; they require reliable resource of water and pasture. Further incidences of infectious and vector-borne diseases, to which livestock are vulnerable, would considerably increase globally with climate change. Incidentally, 75 per cent of emerging diseases are zoonotic (diseases that are transmitted between animals and humans) and the indirect impact on agriculture would be considerable especially in the human labour intensive developing countries.

4. Regarding the future impacts of climate change on crop and tree yields, fisheries, forestry and livestock, a wide region-to-region variation would be expected. Local biomes and terrestrial ecosystems will be adversely impacted. As there is little doubt that climate change will impact regional patterns of temperature and precipitation, climate projections are as yet unable to elucidate exactly when, where and how the changes will be experienced.

5. Global climate change is expected to alter marine and fresh water ecosystems and habitats. Rising sea levels will alter coastal habitats and their future productivity, threatening some of the most productive fishing areas in the world. Altered ocean currents consequent upon temperature rise will bring about changes in distribution and ranges of marine animals including fish populations. Sea level rise leading to salt water intrusion will result in reduced agricultural productivity in many coastal areas.

Secretion of calcareous shells or skeletons by corals, molluscs etc., so essential for their survival, will be disrupted because of acidification of sea water due to excess carbon dioxide dissolving in water. All these will have a serious impact on marine ecosystems and vital food webs, even affecting the diversity of fish species in marine as well as fresh water lakes and rivers.

6. Climate change is already affecting and will continue to affect the geographic range of many animal and plant pests, disease vectors and a wide variety of invasive species that will inhabit new ecological niches with negative impact on agricultural activities through their effect on the health of farmers and functioning of ecosystems, especially in the developing countries.

An increase in temperature and precipitation would be conducive to the expansion of a wide range of vector transmitted diseases with the strong possibility of those being established outside their present range and also at higher elevations. Increased irrigation to counter water scarcity may increase the incidence of water related diseases including malaria.

Seasonal weather changes (short-term version of climate change) as well as long- term climate change will strongly influence the incidence of pests and diseases. Conditions favorable for pests and diseases such as higher winter temperature (implying reduced winter-kill) and higher rainfall (and humidity) may encourage new pest introductions that would alter pest- predator-parasite dynamics through changes in growth and development rates, number of generations produced per year, the severity and density of populations, the pest virulence to host plants or the extent of susceptibility of the host to the pest.

Changing weather patterns also increase crop vulnerability to pests, weeds and invasive plants, thus decreasing yields and increasing pesticide applications. Increased temperatures are likely to facilitate range expansion of some highly damaging weeds, which are usually limited by cool temperatures.

7. IAASTD has cautioned about the serious potential for future conflict and possible violent clashes over habitable land and natural resources, such as fresh water, as a result of climate change that would seriously jeopardize food security and poverty reduction. Annually an estimated 25 million people flee from weather related disasters, this number is projected to increase to about 200 million by 2050 with semi-arid ecosystems expected to be the most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change.

IAASTD further points out that climate change, combined with other socioeconomic stresses could alter the regional distribution of hunger and malnutrition particularly in the poor developing countries of the world.

iv. Options for Action to Meet Climate Change Impacts:

The two conclusive statements of the IPCC – “warming of the climate system is unequivocal” and “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid 20^th century is very likely due to observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations” are now almost universally accepted. The focus, as the IPCC (also IAASTD) rightly mentioned, should therefore shift from defining the threat to seek appropriate solutions.

A coordinated global approach to tackle the root cause of climate change namely GHG emission into the atmosphere is essential for the purpose and that requires a meticulously planned set of strategies by appropriate international bodies and above all with the firm determination to implement emission reductions. The whole issue is of utmost urgency as further negative changes are inevitable requiring interim adaptation and mitigation strategies imperative in the coming decades.

Climate change is not merely an environmental issue; it encompasses broader issues such as sustainable development and livelihood security that involves equitable access to resources and appropriate technologies as well as support systems and mechanisms to cope with risks.

Agricultural policies need to be developed for emission reductions as well as adaptation to climate change; these should be closer to carbon neutral, minimize trace gas emissions and reduce natural capital degradation. The focus should be on emission reduction in agriculture and forestry, production of food with greater input efficiency and less GHG emissions, and how best agriculture, agroforestry and forestry can adapt to given local conditions.

For all these a revised and retooled Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology (AKST) would be required for meeting the challenges of energy efficient farming systems development as well as more comprehensive cost-benefit analysis than those now available. Further interconnected issues such as the negative effects of land use changes on biodiversity and on land degradation need to be addressed in order to exploit the synergies between the goals of UN conventions on biodiversity, and desertification and climate change.

v. Complementary Nature of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies:

In view of the fact that the effects of reduced emission (mitigation) to avoid temperature rise will not be manifested soon, and may even be delayed for several decades, due to the inertia of climate system (time lag between emission of GHGs and temperature rise), adaptation will be important in coping with the early impacts. In fact adaptation will be essential to meet the challenge of impacts on agriculture to which it is already committed in near or distant future.

Mitigation would be the best recourse at all times and it will be the only option when unmitigated climate change exceeds the adaptive capacity of the existing agricultural systems.

Mitigation options include a range of approaches such as lower rates of agricultural expansion into natural habitats, afforestation, reforestation, agroforestry and restoration of underutilized or degraded land, carbon sequestration in agricultural soils, appropriate application of nitrogenous inputs, effective manure management and use of feed that increases livestock digestive efficiency.

Policy options include financial incentives to maintain and increase forest area through reduced deforestation and degradation and improved management to increase the production of renewable energy sources.

Local, national and regional agricultural development frameworks will have to take into account the trade-offs between the need for promoting higher yields and the need for the maintenance and enhancement of environmental services that support agriculture.

Essay # 4. Climate Change Adaptation Options:

Two adaptation options have been recognized, namely autonomous adaptation and planned adaptation. Autonomous adaptation does not constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli but is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market and welfare changes in human systems.

Planned adaptation is the result of a deliberate policy decision and involves implementation of existing knowledge and technology and increasing the adaptive capacity through improved policies and investments in new technologies and infrastructure for more effective adaptation activities.

Autonomous Adaptation Options:

These are largely extensions or intensifications of existing risk management or production enhancement activities as given below:

1. Changing varieties/species to fit more appropriately to the changed climatic conditions.

2. Changing time of irrigation and adjusting nutrient management.

3. Applying water conserving technologies and promoting agro-biodiversity for increased resilience of the agricultural systems.

4. Altering timing or location of cropping activities, and diversification of agriculture.

Planned Adaptations:

These include the following:

1. Implementation of specific policies aimed at reducing poverty and increasing livelihood security.

2. Provision of infrastructure to support integrated spatial planning and to generate and disseminate new knowledge and technologies.

3. Development of management practices tailored to anticipate changes in climate.

According to IAASTD the aforesaid strategies are in fact, examples of the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into policies intended to enhance broad resilience.

The effectiveness of the adaptation strategies is likely to vary significantly between and within regions depending on the impacts and adaptive capacity of regions or areas that may differ very much infrastructural and socioeconomically.

For climate predictions to meet the needs of agriculture it would be necessary to increase observational networks in the most vulnerable areas along with further improvements in forecast accuracy along with the integration of seasonal prediction with information at shorter as well as longer time scales.

Essay # 5. Climate Change Mitigation Options (as Suggested by IAASTD):

1. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide, deforestation and forest degradation that would include policy measures to prevent deforestation, improving forest management, forest fire management, improving silvicultural practices, promoting afforestation and reforestation to increase carbon storage in forests.

2. Improving soil carbon retention by promoting global biodiversity and associated ecosystem services (valued at US $ 1,542 billion annually by IAASTD), as a strategy for climate change mitigation and adaptation, and improving management of residues using zero or reduced tillage, growing legumes in crop rotation, reducing fallow periods and converting marginal lands into woodlots.

3. Reducing levels of methane emission in livestock production by improving animal diets and using feed additives to increase food conversion efficiency by reducing enteric fermentation and consequent methane emissions, aerating manure before composting, recycling agricultural and forestry residues to produce biogas or biofuels.

4. Giving support to low input farming in agriculture that relies on renewable sources of energy.

5. Policy options should include giving financial incentives to increase forest area, reduce deforestation and for enhancing the production of renewable energy source.

IAASTD cautions that efforts towards emission reduction of a particular GHG should not encourage GHG emission from other potential sources; often reduction in methane emission may lead to greater N₂O emission through changes in soil nitrogen dynamics; conservation tillage for carbon sequestration may result in elevated N₂O emissions through increased use of agrochemicals and accelerated denitrification in soils.

Essay # 6. Climate Change Regimes:

Although IAASTD (2008) regarded the Kyoto Protocol as one representing the highest level of International consensus to address climate change, its report pointed out that mitigation options for agriculture has, however, not been well covered under the Protocol. Incidentally, Kyoto Protocol itself has been effectively shelved in the Copenhagen summit meeting of the heads of states in December, 2009 because of intervention by USA and several other countries.

IAASTD is of the opinion that to take full advantage of the opportunities offered by agriculture and forestry sectors, a long term (30-50 years) comprehensive and regulatory framework would be necessary. Within such a framework, a modified Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) with a comprehensive set of eligible agricultural mitigation activities could help in meeting the development and sustainability goals.

Such activities should include afforestation and reforestation, avoiding deforestation, using a national sectoral approach rather than a project approach allowing for policy interventions, and a wide range of agricultural practices (that includes organic agriculture) for development and long term sustainability goals. The future of conservation agriculture in the current format with lot of emphasis on agrochemicals, particularly toxic herbicides is, however, doubtful.

Essay # 7. GHG Mitigation and Energy Saving in Organic Farming:

Although IPCC (2007) pointed out the significant contribution of conventional industrial agriculture along with deforestation on GHG emission (together 30.9 per cent) and global warming, it was IAASTD (2008) that indicated the possibility of countering the same by ecologically sustainable natural resource management based agriculture.

Mae-Wan Ho (2008) in a press release by the Institute of Science in Society, UK (ISIS) re-estimated the contribution of industrial agriculture and food systems to global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and produced an estimate of 34 per cent GHG emission as the overall agriculture and food related contribution as shown in Table 10.1.

Further, there is a large scope for reversing the damages of the current agriculture and faulty food systems by organic agriculture and localized food systems that besides effectively mitigating the whole of the agricultural GHG emission would save energy equal (or nearly equal) to all that is being used at present in industrial agriculture and associated activities, as shown in Table 10.2.

Reduction of factory-scale beef cattle production in the west by half would increase the mitigation potential by 1.6 per cent (making the total 32.1 per cent), and installation of biogas plants in crop livestock integrated farming systems would serve as net providers of energy to the farms.

David Pimentel and coauthors have shown that in the USA fossil fuel energy inputs for organic crop production were about 30 per cent lower than for conventionally produced corn, that is indeed a considerable energy saving.

There is no valid reason to be afraid of the ultimate outcome of organic farming in terms of productivity loss in our country. Using a large data set, Catherine Badgley and coworkers (2007), working in the University of Michigan, have shown that at a stable state of soil, either under conventional or under organic or near-organic management (not during conversion from high intensive input to organic or near-organic systems), the yield ratios of organic versus conventionally grown food crops that included grains, starchy roots, sugar crops, legumes (pulses), oil yielding crops, vegetables and fruits (total number of studies had been 293) gave an average (average of all different types of plants) yield ratio value (organic versus conventional) of 0.914 (S.E. ± 0.02) for developed countries of the world, showing a minor yield reduction in those countries.

In developing countries, on the other hand, the yield ratio value was 1.74 (S.E. ± 0.09) indicating considerable overall superiority of organic systems vis- a-vis conventional agriculture. Badgley et al. (2007) therefore suggested that organic agriculture could feed the world while doing away with the adverse impacts of conventional agriculture on environment and ecosystems.

Essay # 8. Indian Climate Scenario:

i. Concerns and National Action Plan:

According to the Fourth Assessment Report (2007) of the IPCC, the Indian subcontinent will have to come up with challenges of the adverse effects of climate change that may be moderate to severe. Over the last 100 years, average surface temperature of the country (all India level) has risen by 0.4°C with the adverse effects more apparent in coastal areas, central India and Deccan plateau. Monsoon rains have decreased in the eastern part of Madhya Pradesh, northeast India, Gujarat and Kerala and over the last 100 years about 6-8 per cent decrease in monsoon rainfall has taken place.

Sea level rise (SLR) measured at high tide over the last 40 years has been 1.06- 1.75 mm per year and according to National Communications, India (NATCOM I), by 2050 the total sea level rise will be 15-18 cm that will go up to 46-59 cm by the end of the century resulting in inundation of many low lying areas with salt water and increased salinity due to intrusion of sea water over large tracts of land along the coast line. NATCOM I (2004) also projects that extreme weather events such as cyclones will increase by 15 per cent damaging the coastal regions in particular with lot of suffering of people inhabiting such vulnerable areas.

Regarding mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, a NATCOM I study has shown that GHG emission from agricultural sources is next to that for fossil fuel consumption in transport. According to Parikh (2010) agriculture in India presently uses 12 per cent of total diesel consumed in India (trucks 37 per cent, passenger cars 15 per cent, buses 12 per cent, industry 10 per cent, power generators 8 per cent, and railways 6 per cent, are the other important consumers).

The greenhouse gases, methane and nitrous oxide owe their emission mostly from agricultural activities. It also noted that crossbred dairy cattle would show more methane emission per head. Suitable food additives would be required to check enteric emission. A very useful suggestion is to stop the burning of crop residues in mechanized farming and divert the same as cattle feed (or using the same for making compost or vermin compost). Reduced dependency on synthetic N-fertilizers would significantly decrease emission of nitrous oxide, a highly potent GHG.

Increasing ambient temperature will accelerate melting of glaciers that may initially increase water availability but will eventually recede and supply less water to the snow-fed Himalayan Rivers of northern India in the lean season of the year, when water will be necessary for irrigation. Recharging of aquifers will be affected because of erratic rainfall pattern and intermittent droughts.

By the end of the 21^st century water availability may go down by 20-30 per cent with large negative effects on agriculture; rise in average temperature further exacerbating the situation. Predictions regarding health sector indicate greater incidence of vector borne diseases like dengue and malaria as also enteric diseases, which have indirect effects on agricultural productivity by adversely affecting the health of farmers in the labour intensive farming practices in the country. Farming in the coastal areas will suffer from more frequent floods, storm surges and salinitization of land.

Recently, Chakraborty et. al (2010) of West Bengal State Pollution Control Board, Department of Environment have deliberated on the multiple adverse effects of climate change on various sectors including health, agriculture, industry, energy, etc. along with ways and means of tackling the situation.

They have pointed out that negative impacts of water shortage will be more in the intensively cultivated Ganga basin particularly in the lower part (in West Bengal) where the decreased flow will encourage sea water intrusion and increased salinity. Water shortage and temperature rise in general will be especially harmful for Rabi (winter-summer) crops that require the supply of stored surface water from reservoirs or underground aquifers.

In fact NATCOM I projections indicate that water shortage will occur in all major rivers including Ganga, Brahmaputra, Sind and their tributaries affecting agriculture and allied activities in their respective basins.

As pest and disease infestations will be more, crop production will also go down. Animals being more sensitive to high temperature and water shortage (and also disease susceptible) will be less productive. Marine, coastal and inland fisheries are being and will be adversely impacted by climate change with consequent economic distress to the fisher-folk.

ii. National Initiatives to Face the Challenge of Climate Change:

The Government of India has recently published the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCQ through the Prime Minister’s Council.

Among the NAPCC’s guiding principles, the following points are considered to have significant bearing on food security and agriculture:

1. Protecting the poor and vulnerable sections of the society through an inclusive and sustainable development strategy, sensitive to climate change.

2. Achieving national growth objectives through a qualitative change in direction that enhances ecological sustainability leading to further mitigation of greenhouse gas emission.

3. Deploying appropriate technologies for both adaptation and mitigation of greenhouse gas emission extensively as well as at an accelerated pace.

4. Effecting implementation of programme through unique linkages, including civil society and local government institutions and through public-private partnership.

For fulfilling developmental objectives by limiting the per capita GHG emission below that of the developed countries, eight national missions have been identified for necessary directional shifts towards implementation of growth strategies, namely:

(i) National Solar Mission,

(ii) National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency,

(iii) National Mission on Sustainable Habitat,

(iv) National Water Mission,

(v) National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem,

(vi) National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture,

(vii) National Mission for a “Green India”, and

(viii) National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change.

The widely varied geo-climatic features of a vast country like India implies that climate change impact would be different in geo-climate logically different regions. In fact IPCC (2007) as well as NATCOM I findings confirm the need for differential and regional approach. As such, the different states should formulate state policies in keeping with regional needs and national policies.

It is heartening to note that most of the aforesaid eight national missions directly and indirectly focus on the need for ecologically sustainable agriculture which is so very relevant to the small and marginal farmer dominated rural India; in fact they would be the worst sufferers of the adverse impacts of climate change.

Essay # 9. The Urgent Need for Rescheduling the Farming Practices of Small­holder Indian Farmers:

Directly and indirectly over 60 per cent of the Indian population are dependent on agriculture and allied activities. The small-holder farmers are socioeconomically extremely hard pressed, climate change will inevitably aggravate their food and livelihood security.

The report of the Suresh Tendulkar Committee, submitted to the Planning Commission in December 2009, reveals that at the national level 37 per cent of Indians are below the poverty line (BPL) (about 10 per cent more than the previous estimate). If only rural areas are considered, the figure goes up to 42 per cent implying that nearly half of rural India is starving. It is a pity that most of them are the people who produce food to feed the nation. To nearly half a billion very poor Indians “India Shining” is an over-hyped myth.

Of the various reasons behind the precarious condition of the farming community, a few relevant ones may be cited as follows:

1. Agricultural growth in the country is falling behind population growth, excessive fragmentation of holdings, soil degradation due to lack of soil management and wrong agricultural policies and practices; high input costs – as such, farming is becoming uneconomic and non-remunerative.

2. Loss of biodiversity, crop biodiversity in particular, has been a major fall­out of the so-called green revolution technology (GRT) in view of the fact that thousands of varieties of different crops (especially cereals, pulses, oilseeds and vegetables) have been irretrievably lost because farmers who have been maintaining them (and also adding to their numbers) for specific agro-ecological niches and special purposes shifted over to a handful of GRT varieties. Faunal diversity (particularly the population of beneficial and farmer-friendly insects, amphibians and birds) has been greatly reduced by the pesticide menace.

3. Globalization of agricultural trade is encouraging cash crops over staple foods; export orientation in the face of unequal competition from highly subsidized imports is also adversely affecting farmers.

4. Climate change is negatively impacting agricultural production specifically in low latitude countries like India. Of these, most are beyond the immediate control of the average small-holder farmer except short term changes (and in due course medium and long term changes) in farming practices.

5. Corporatization of agriculture and food systems would pose a very serious threat to the livelihood and survival of our small-holder farmers.

The sole focus on production increase at any cost through conventional (industrial) chemical-intensive agriculture and its all-pervasive formula of “fertilizer (NPK)-irrigation water-pesticides”, with initial short term success, has in 3-4 decades ruined the natural fertility of the soil, greatly diminished soil organic matter, the abode of soil microbes, extensively depleted the aquifers, almost irreversibly polluted air and water and incurring huge external costs with no attempt to minimize the cost of production.

The tolerance of the insect pests to pesticides has reached a point where even the expensive third and fourth generation toxic pesticides are failing to control them. Increased applications of NPK fertilizers are becoming counterproductive, the deficiency of secondary nutrients and micronutrients is widespread.

Further cost of fertilizers is increasing in the world market and as the country now imports over 40 per cent of nitrogen, 97 per cent of phosphorus and 100 per cent of potash at international price and makes that available at around 15-20 per cent of actual costs, the situation is destined to turn serious in the near future. According to Roberts and Stewart (2002) economically recoverable phosphorus in the world would be available may be for another three decades only (global potassium resource, however, may not deplete before another 100 years or so).

The depleting fossil fuel reserves will certainly affect mechanized agriculture and will also limit their use in production of fertilizers, pesticides etc. Recycling of crop residues and all organic wastes in a closed agricultural system (earth itself with limited resources is also a closed system but for the almost unlimited and inexhaustible supply of solar energy) would perhaps be the only viable option left to millions and millions of small-holder farmers not only in India but also in all developing countries more so in the perspective of climate change intensifying its negative impacts on most human activities including agriculture.

In natural resource management based agricultural systems the dependency on synthetic fertilizers, pesticides, fossil fuels, etc. should ideally be nil but from a practical viewpoint, as low as possible to tide over initial set-backs in the absence of adequate experience and training in genuine ecologically sustainable farming practices. High yielding varieties (HYVs) are in fact high input requiring varieties and in the changed situation they must be avoided as far as possible.

The presently available expensive genetically modified (GM) seeds which are also tailor-made for specific inputs, besides their still unknown short and long term effects on health of the ecosystem including that of humans and livestock and allied plants of the same family must not be included in the cropping schedule of the formers whose seed requirements should be basically made from locally adapted crop cultivars.

Hybrids are also high input requiring seeds and cannot be saved for next sowing. Incidentally all GM cotton cultivars commercialized in India are hybrids as also all other GM crops in the pipeline. So the farmer would be unable to save the seed for next sowing. Under no circumstances, the farmers as individuals or community wise should be deprived from their traditional right to save the seeds of crops raised by them. As such, setting up seed villages with emphasis on locally adapted varieties also those in the public domain, and provision of adequate support systems and training must be encouraged throughout the country.

As against the top-down approach in conventional industrial agriculture, all natural resource management based eco-sustainable agricultural systems would be essentially bottom-up in nature. All decisions in the individual farms and at the community level must be taken after a threadbare discussion with experienced farmers, panchayat and block level functionaries.

Essay # 10. Biodiversity and Climate Change:

Adequate exploitation of existing crop biodiversity will be a key factor in successful adaptation to the changing climate scenario. Increased emphasis on poly-culture and mixed farming, if necessary sowing different compatible crops at intervals or even different varieties of the same crops, would serve as natural insurance to cover the risk of monoculture of a single species or variety failing to withstand unknown or known biotic and abiotic stresses; with more crops or varieties, the chances of compensation of the loss incurred by susceptible ones by the resistant or tolerant ones would be of great help to the farmers.

In the climate change projections intermittent as well as prolonged droughts followed by heavy showers and floods have been made; we do not have as yet commercial cultivars of crops, which would successfully withstand drought as well as flood simultaneously. Mixed cropping employing appropriate cultivars of the same crop, or if necessary altogether different crops depending on the situation, would be a more practical approach. Creation of varieties genetically equipped with such opposite traits (tolerant to drought as well as flood) maybe a very difficult proposition.

In a recent review article, Cotter and Tirado (2010) have also strongly vindicated the concept that the most effective strategy to adapt to global climatic changes particularly to temperature rise, unpredictable rainfall pattern and weather extremes would be to put due emphasis on increased biodiversity.

Judicious use of different but compatible crops as well as different varieties within a crop species for cultivation in the same field or in adjacent small subplots, or as mixed stand in alternate lines or cluster of rows would be a useful strategy. Crops of similar durations sown by broadcasting seed mixtures also would serve as effective compensatory mechanisms against climate change induced biotic and abiotic stresses.

Care should be taken to avoid the problem of non-synchronous harvesting schedule of a mixed stand of varieties of annual crops by selecting as far as possible cultivars of similar durations specifically when broadcasting is done to sow the crops with seed mixtures.

Sowing in lines or groups of lines of different varieties would, however, allow hand cutting and separately harvesting the different varieties without much difficulty. Such mixed cropping would cause a dilution of the availability of pest and disease susceptible host plants, indirectly but effectively protecting them from crop pest and disease attacks.

Inclusion of drought tolerant and water logging resistant varieties in the same or adjacent crop stands may enable farmers to tide over uncertain climatic conditions, particularly irregular rainfall patterns. Similarly in coastal semi-saline tracts, salt tolerant varieties should be used along with better yielding salt-susceptible ones, and only salt-tolerant varieties, preferably a number of them, should be grown in a mixed stand in more saline soils.

Planting of suitable hardy perennial plants of economic importance on farm bunds and other suitable locations would provide further economic security to the farmer. Working with a rice-based mixed farming in a drought-prone area in eastern Bihar, Roy (1982) noted that the genetic diversity, within a crop species and that of mixed cropping systems would provide overall yield advantage and also serve as a safety measure against disease-pest epidemics.

Crop-livestock integrated farming has been a traditional practice with the Indian small-holder farmers concerned with the nutritional security of the family as well as the great importance given to animal manure for maintaining soil fertility but with a shift to conventional chemical-intensive agriculture, it is only sporadically practiced. There are, however, overwhelming evidences of much larger economic benefits of crop-livestock (fishery included) integrated fanning practices in India, south-east Asia and elsewhere with 2-3 times net income along with food and nutrition security of the practicing farmers.

Planned incorporation of animal husbandry and fishery into the crop sector is not simply a question of added benefit; it is highly synergistic as the combined effect on integration is more than the additive value of the individual beneficial effects of the different sectors.

For effectively tackling the adverse impacts of global climate change on agriculture, it is necessary to undertake research on regional and agro-climatic zone basis in a state and also on specific problem areas within a zone. It is now widely recognized that ecologically sustainable farming will greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions serving as an effective GHG mitigation technology. Research on adaptation needs immediate strengthening.

Adaptation of plants and animals introduced from different countries to other climatologically different countries has given a lot of experience that would need recapitulation. Animal breeding studies have made possible the incorporation of useful genes from Indian livestock to their counterparts in Australia, Africa, etc. Such experiences with plants and animals need to be shared at all possible levels.

Firstly, the characters of plants and animals that will enable them to adapt to projected altered climatic scenario need to be identified and sources within the country critically investigated. May be within acknowledged varieties and breeds, commercial as well as indigenous ones (including local types), desired characters are present.

If so, they need to be tested under simulated conditions before outdoor trials, which would be easier with plants. In case of plants, conventional (traditional) breeding combined with the biotechnological (non-GM) technique of MAB (Marker Assisted Breeding) and MAS (Marker Assisted Selection) has enabled the creation of submergence tolerant rice that may prove useful in flood prone areas. Such studies would be necessary for other crops as well but the onus for critical analytical studies on planned adaptations would be on institutions of high level research at national and state levels.

Essay # 11. Options for Small and Marginal Farmers:

For the small-holder farmers at the village level several options are given hereunder, the choosing of appropriate ones depending on the situation would enable them to considerably meet many of the impending challenges of climate change.

1. Digging rainwater-harvesting structures such as ponds, dug wells of different sizes, shallow rectangular water harvesting structures for lands with gentle slopes in drought prone areas, contour bunds across the slope to arrest the run off and consequent erosion of the soil. The fertile topsoil along with invaluable plant nutrients would otherwise be lost irretrievably to the sea via creeks, canals and rivers.

2. Land shaping to raise low lands to accommodate a pond and raise a part of the land (surrounding the pond along with the bunds around the plot) to enable growing of fruits and vegetables in the uplands, paddy with fish in low land, paddy (HYV) in the medium land; the pond serving as rainwater harvesting structure would supply irrigation water in the lean period (Rabi season) besides raising fish and rearing ducks for nutritional security and food security.

Rainwater harvesting and crop-livestock integrated farming system (IFS) would assure year round employment generation and a 2-3 fold net rise in. Cattle keeping for draft, milk and cow-dung, the latter in many instances has enabled installation of small biogas plants to supply cooking fuel and slimy as valuable manure (also used for vermin-compost preparation and as fish feed).

3. Wherever possible adoption of System of Rice Intensification (SRI) for paddy cultivation is suggested; it would save nearly half of the water used in conventional cultivation, seed rate will be less than one fifth; with organic manure only, and an increase in yield to the extent of one ton per hectare may be expected. SRI in Rabi season on 20 per cent of paddy area would enable a significant diversion of land to pulses, oilseeds and wheat that are in short supply.

The acreage should go up by 10 per cent annually. Necessary motivation of farmers along with arrangements for training will go a long way in popularizing SRI. As in SRI much less water is used, production of the greenhouse gas methane would be less. SRI would impart more tolerance to climatic stresses such as dry spells and erratic rainfalls. Data from northern India in the drought year of 2009, showed that conventional paddy yield declined by 31 per cent while with SRI yield declined by 13 per cent only.

4. The Non-Pesticidal Management (NPM) of insect pests, presently covered under Community Managed Sustainable Agriculture (CMSA) has by 2009 spread to 1.39 million acres (estimated at 2.8 million acres i.e. 1.12 million hectares in 2010) in Andhra Pradesh involving 318,000 farmers of 3,171 villages in the state. NPM has been similar to Integrated Pest Management (IPM) but one step ahead in that it altogether discarded chemical pesticides (the last resort for pest control in IPM).

Summer ploughing, bonfires, and pheromone traps, use of trap crops, bird perches, light traps, spraying diluted fermented cow dung-cow urine along with range of botanical preparations would substantially reduce pest attack, significantly lowering the cost of cultivation. Although initially CMSA has been continuing the use of chemical fertilizers, those are being gradually phased out with emphasis on soil fertility management through application of tank silt, composts and vermi-composts (augmented by biomass plantation on farm bunds, azolla culture in rice) and inoculation with nitrogen fixing bacteria, etc.

With total shift to organic farming within several years, the emphasis will be on intercropping and biodiversity- based multi-cropping. The Govt, of Kerala has already adopted a state policy of a total shift to organic agriculture within 5 to 10 years to save the farmers from the current multidimensional agrarian distress and to protect the environment from further degradation and bring back Kerala’s pristine ecosystems.

It is worthwhile to note in this connection that within a short period the certified area under organic agriculture in India has gone up to over one million hectares with Madhya Pradesh heading the list of the practicing states. Another feature is the sharp reversal of trend of consumption, the earlier export oriented organic agriculture has given way to domestic consumption of nearly 96 per cent of the total produce of 976,000 tons (valued at 2.63 billion US dollars) in 2007-2008; the 3.8 per cent export of organic produce gave a foreign exchange earnings of 100 million US dollars (Export-Import Bank of India, 2010).

The demand of metropolitan cities is estimated to be around Rs. 1.4 billion annually. Greater adoption of organic farming systems would be a key factor in mitigating GHG emission besides enhanced nutritive values and health benefits of organic food.

The small-holder farmer is sensible enough to give enough priority to food and nutritional security of the family but very often unable to ensure that because of acute poverty. A community based approach through which the farmers would first meet the basic needs of the community by cultivating (through mutual arrangements) a wide range of crops for nutritional security, and after meeting local needs, sell the rest to the nearby semi urban or urban markets.

Transport cost is steadily rising and along with that the “food miles” related GHG emission; as such, localized food production and consumption (collectively known as localized food system) are widely advocated by environmentalists all over the world. Unfortunately the corporate controlled food and agricultural sectors, as in the developed countries in the North, follow totally opposite policies and strategies on the issue and to them neither food and nutritional security nor environment would mean the same thing as they do to the poverty stricken small and marginal farmers fighting for mere subsistence.

Essay # 12. Remarks on the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture:

Ignoring the extreme seriousness of the GHG induced climate change will be utter foolishness on the part of the humankind who are directly responsible for the gradually unfolding impacts of climate change and its future consequences on the sustenance of the biosphere.

Both adaptation to the present and future more severe impacts of climate change and urgent steps to mitigate GHG emission would be essential features of our defense mechanisms for sustenance of the biosphere and ultimate survival. Adaptation maybe possible upto a certain limit; adaptive capacity will fail thereafter.

The sense of complacency that comes out of a “nothing much to worry” attitude is one of the reasons for the lack of seriousness of many developed countries in emission cuts. It is because of low impacts of climate change at initial stages in the countries at high latitudes. A small increase of 1-2°C temperature will lengthen the growing season by several days increasing agricultural production; warming of cooler regions will be advantageous for livestock rearing and for many other human activities.

Further, the economic prosperity of the developed countries will enable them to more effectively counter the adverse impacts of future climate change through advanced adaptation technologies. As such, they can wait for a longer period than the much more vulnerable developing countries in the low latitudes. Immediate emission cuts would mean lower resource and energy consumption and a partial compromise in living standards which is rather difficult to reconcile for people long accustomed to a high standard of living.

The hope that was generated especially among the poor developing countries before the Copenhagen World Summit of the heads of states in December, 2009 was ultimately shattered through deliberate intervention by the USA, the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases to effectively stall the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol for emission reductions to mitigate climate change impacts thereby reconfirming the continuation of the US policy of utter disregard for any strategy that would compromise their standard of living.

In the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in June, 1992 the-then US President George Bush (Sr.) forewarned, “Our standard of living is not negotiable”; President Barack Obama like his predecessors may not have any other option but to continue with the legacy?

The mindless consumerism (a product of corporate culture) and wasteful living, and individual and collective selfishness resulting in disproportionately draining out and exploiting earth’s reserves and natural resources (and in the process vitiating the earth’s environment and ecosystems), can hardly be justified as acts of progressive human civilization.

The Latin name of “modern” human being, which evolved some 120,000 years ago is, Homo sapiens. The word “sapiens” means ‘wise’, as such, the present day human is doubly wise. Unfortunately, this over intelligent sole surviving species of the genus Homo is fully responsible for the present calamity being perpetuated on earth through climate change.

Perhaps the last hope of a global reconciliation on GHG emission reduction (to eventually become C-neutral), rests on the realization that the end is not very far and ultimately nobody would be spared from the inevitable onslaught of climate change. May be that would be too late for fruitful mitigation of the adverse impacts but let us hope for the best!